United States Politics: ∆τ_i*ε*φ*m_i<0 where ε=4 and φ=0.25

[PhoenixDark]

Perhaps it's time to stop viewing this from the perspective that "early primary polls don't really matter much" and instead think of it as "republican voters view Trump as an incumbent president, hence his huge leads." DeSantis is spending a lot of time and money on the ground in early states and making no progress, poll wise. Sure polls can be wrong, and regularly are wrong in primaries. But usually in Iowa and NH you're able to get a sense of momentum. Maybe a few thousand people like a candidate and suddenly his poll numbers go up. Maybe it's only a shift from 5% to 8% but it's a clear sign that people are hearing about the candidate, like him, etc. That's not happening with DeSantis or anyone else this year.


Trump is the defacto leader of his party, he's more like a unique American opposition leader/shadow cabinet figure than just a candidate for president who happens to be leading in polls (see: Hillary and Rudy, circa this time in 2007).